Guides
The commercial insurance market outlook as of October 2026
An outlook as of October 2026 from AM Best, Swiss Re, Marsh, CIAB and Triple-I: soft property and cyber, firm casualty and auto, and what could change it.
This is an outlook as of October 10, 2026, not a forecast of your renewal. The sources agree on the shape of the market: a soft market in property, cyber and many financial lines, a firm one in casualty, umbrella and commercial auto, and insurers that are still profitable but earning less. Marsh expects the current conditions to persist unless a severe storm season or string of catastrophes intervenes, and Swiss Re Institute expects this soft market to be shallower than earlier ones.
Everything below is attributed and dated. Market conditions change quarter to quarter; for the history behind them, see commercial insurance pricing trends: what the 2026 indexes show and hard and soft insurance markets: what the cycle means for buyers.
How to read these sources
Each one measures something different, so they will not agree to the decimal.
- Marsh publishes a quarterly index of rate changes on the commercial placements it handles, globally and by region.
- CIAB (Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers) surveys its member brokers each quarter on premium changes by line and account size.
- AM Best is a ratings agency; its outlooks come from insurer financial results and capital.
- Swiss Re Institute publishes macroeconomic and insurance-cycle research (its sigma series).
- Triple-I, the Insurance Information Institute's research arm, works with Milliman on projections of industry underwriting results.
Marsh's index for the third quarter of 2026 had not been published as of October 10, 2026, so the Q2 numbers are the latest available.
Where prices are now
| Source and date | Finding |
|---|---|
| Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, Q2 2026 (July 23, 2026) | Global composite down 6%, the eighth consecutive quarterly decrease; U.S. composite down 2% after a 1% decline in Q1 |
| Marsh, Q2 2026, U.S. lines | Property down 13%; casualty up 7% (from 9% in Q1); financial and professional lines up 1% (after down 2%); cyber down 2% |
| CIAB Q2 2026 survey (published Aug. 20, 2026) | All accounts down 2.0%: large accounts down 3.7%, medium down 1.9%, small down 0.5% |
| CIAB Q2 2026, by line | Commercial property down 6.3%; umbrella up 5.3%; commercial auto up 4.5%; workers' compensation down 3.2%; cyber down 3.2% |
Sources: Marsh, July 23, 2026 and Insurance Journal's report on the CIAB survey, Aug. 20, 2026.
Marsh attributes the decline to abundant capacity, strong insurer profitability, surplus capital, lower reinsurance costs and higher investment returns, and says insurers are competing on broader coverage and lower deductibles as well as price. CIAB said property reductions reflect carriers offsetting increases they asked for in commercial auto and umbrella, and noted that 75% of respondents reported more property capacity.
How profitable insurers are
AM Best's February 2026 market segment report, as reported by Claims Journal, put the 2025 U.S. property-casualty combined ratio at 95, improved from 98 in 2024 and under 100 for the first time in three years. For 2026 it projected 96.9 for the industry and 96.3 for commercial lines, up from 95.8 in 2025. Net premiums written grew 6.1% in 2025, down from 8.7% in 2024, and AM Best expects slower growth in 2026 as rates flatten. A combined ratio under 100 means an underwriting profit; see the combined ratio: how insurers make (and lose) money on underwriting.
The averages hide weak lines. AM Best reported 2025 combined ratios of 103.5 for commercial auto, 106 for medical professional liability and 108 for other and products liability. Its December 2025 commercial lines report kept the segment outlook at stable but held negative sub-segment outlooks on general liability, commercial auto and directors and officers liability, with property, workers' compensation and surety stable. In early October 2026, Carrier Management reported on AM Best's first-half review: downgrades were 3.8% of rating actions and upgrades 8.2%, 82.3% of commercial writers had a stable outlook at June 30, 2026, and most downgrades were on commercial casualty and commercial auto carriers (Carrier Management, Oct. 4, 2026).
Reserves are one reason AM Best stays cautious on casualty. It put the year-end 2024 industry reserve deficiency at $9 billion, almost $10 billion better than it first estimated. See loss reserves and reserve development: why they matter to buyers.
The global and industry view
Swiss Re Institute. Its July 2026 sigma report, "World insurance in 2026: Shock absorbers in a fragmenting world," as summarized by Carrier Management on July 13, 2026, expects real growth in global non-life premiums of about 0.6% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, against a 3.6% average over 2015 to 2024. It flags a possible 0.5% contraction in U.S. premium as rates soften across most lines. Swiss Re puts non-life return on equity at 14% in 2025, a cyclical high, easing to 11.4% in 2026 and 7.7% by 2028. It argues the soft market could be shallower than past ones, with sharper repricing possible if large losses, inflation or capital signals worsen.
Triple-I and Milliman. Their July 2026 update says general liability and commercial auto continue to present the greatest underwriting challenges, with loss ratios expected to stay elevated. Workers' compensation is described as well positioned, supported by stable employment, steady wage growth and favorable loss trends; NCCI's Stephen Cooper flags rising interest rates and potential frequency pressure as areas to watch. Property-related coverages fared well in the first quarter. The named risks are catastrophe activity, geopolitical uncertainty, and liability cost drivers such as legal system abuse; Triple-I's forecast assumes geopolitical tensions ease in the second half of 2026 (Triple-I/Milliman release, July 16, 2026, via InsuranceNewsNet).
Outlook by line
| Line | Direction as of Oct. 2026 | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial property | Softening; the most competitive for well-protected risks | Marsh U.S. property -13%; CIAB -6.3%; more capacity per CIAB |
| General liability, umbrella and excess | Firm to rising | CIAB umbrella +5.3%; Marsh U.S. casualty +7%; AM Best negative GL outlook; see nuclear verdicts and social inflation: why liability costs keep rising |
| Commercial auto | Rising | CIAB +4.5%; AM Best 2025 combined ratio 103.5; negative sub-segment outlook; see why commercial auto insurance keeps getting more expensive |
| Workers' compensation | Modest decreases | CIAB -3.2%; AM Best stable; Triple-I/Milliman "well positioned"; see workers' comp trends: frequency, severity and rates in 2026 |
| Cyber | Soft | Marsh U.S. -2%, global -4% (twelfth straight quarterly decline); CIAB -3.2%; see the cyber insurance market: capacity, pricing and appetite |
| Financial and professional lines | Mixed, turning up | Marsh U.S. +1% after -2%; AM Best negative D&O outlook |
What could change it
- Catastrophe losses. Marsh's own caveat is a severe northern hemisphere storm season or string of major catastrophes. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, and the year-end reinsurance renewals follow; see The January 1 reinsurance renewals explained: the 2026 results and how reinsurance pricing flows into business insurance premiums.
- Casualty reserve development. If older liability years keep developing upward, carriers will push rates up and limit capacity in those lines.
- Social inflation. Swiss Re Institute cites large U.S. jury verdicts behind rising casualty rates, AM Best cites social inflation, and Triple-I and Milliman cite legal system abuse.
- Inflation and repair costs. AM Best cites rising material costs for commercial property and auto physical damage repairs.
- Investment returns. AM Best lists higher investment yields as support for the stable outlook. Lower yields would reduce the cushion that lets carriers accept thinner underwriting margins.
- Geopolitics and tariffs. AM Best names geopolitical risk and tariffs as inflation and supply chain risks, and Triple-I and Milliman name geopolitical uncertainty.
Calendar items that touch pricing
These are policy dates, not forecasts.
- NFIP. FEMA says authorization was extended to December 11, 2026; if it lapses, policies cannot be sold or renewed. See NFIP reauthorization and what it means for business flood cover.
- TRIA. The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program is authorized through December 31, 2027. The House passed H.R. 7128 in June 2026 and the Senate passed S. 4395 on September 28, 2026, both extending the program to 2034 but with differences to reconcile, so neither had become law as of October 10 (Insurance Journal, Sept. 29, 2026). See Terrorism insurance and TRIA: how the federal backstop works.
A hypothetical budget
Say a distributor pays $200,000 for property, $80,000 for umbrella and $120,000 for commercial auto. If each line moved by the CIAB second-quarter 2026 averages, property would fall 6.3% ($12,600), umbrella would rise 5.3% ($4,240) and auto would rise 4.5% ($5,400). The net is a decrease of $2,960 on $400,000, about 0.7%, which hides two very different markets. The figures are invented and the averages are not a prediction for any account: your own losses, class, size and location matter more than any index.
What buyers should do with the outlook
- Treat each line separately. Spend property savings on broader coverage, lower deductibles or higher limits; do not let them blur the casualty increases.
- Budget for casualty and auto increases even when the headline index is negative, and lead the umbrella and auto renewals with your loss story and controls.
- Start early. A soft market rewards brokers who market the account properly; see business insurance renewal: a 90-day checklist.
- Keep a catastrophe contingency. Marsh's own outlook is conditional.
- Revisit this page. It reflects sources as of October 10, 2026 and will be out of date after the next Marsh and CIAB releases.
Key takeaways
- As of October 2026, Marsh (Q2 2026) shows U.S. property down 13% and casualty up 7%; CIAB (Q2 2026) shows property down 6.3%, umbrella up 5.3% and commercial auto up 4.5%.
- AM Best projects the 2026 commercial lines combined ratio at 96.3, up from 95.8, with commercial auto, other liability and medical professional liability above 100 in 2025.
- Swiss Re Institute expects slower premium growth and a soft market that may be shallower than past cycles.
- Triple-I and Milliman see general liability and commercial auto as the main underwriting problems and workers' compensation as well positioned.
- The main risks to the outlook are a severe catastrophe season, casualty reserve development, social inflation, inflation and geopolitics.