The January 1 reinsurance renewals explained: the 2026 results

January 1 is the largest renewal date in global reinsurance, the day most U.S. and European property catastrophe, casualty and specialty treaties are renewed. At the January 1, 2026 renewals, property catastrophe pricing fell by roughly 12% to 15% depending on the broker's index, the steepest decline in more than a decade according to Howden Re, and the softening continued through the mid-year renewals. For a business buyer, that is the background to the flatter property rates seen in 2026.

Why January 1 matters

Reinsurers and the insurers that buy from them (called cedants) run on annual treaties. A large share of those contracts, including most European and many U.S. property catastrophe programs, incept on January 1. The other major dates are April 1 (Japan and some Asian business), June 1 (Florida) and July 1 (a broad mix of U.S. and other property). Because Florida renews June 1, the hurricane-exposed Southeast is priced at mid-year, but January 1 sets the global tone.

The negotiation runs from October through December. Brokers circulate renewal reports within days of the date, and the independent indices they publish are the market's scoreboard. The quoted figure is usually the change in rate on line (premium divided by limit) on a risk-adjusted basis. "Risk-adjusted" means after allowing for changes in the coverage bought, such as a higher attachment point. A 12% decline means the same layer is 12% cheaper, not that the carrier's total reinsurance bill fell by 12%.

What the three main brokers reported for 1/1/2026

Sources: Guy Carpenter figures as reported by Reinsurance News; Gallagher Re's 1st View as reported by Reinsurance News and Captive.com; Howden Re as reported by Artemis. The three indices use different samples and methods, which is why the numbers differ. Check each broker's own report for the full method.

By the mid-year renewals, Guy Carpenter's U.S. property cat rate-on-line index was down about 16% for 2026 through July, according to Artemis, and about 22% from its 2024 peak.

Why prices fell

Brokers cited the same causes:

• Excess capital. Reinsurers earned returns above their cost of capital in 2025, even after the Los Angeles wildfires, and retained those earnings. New entrants and insurance-linked securities (ILS) investors added more. Gallagher Re reported ILS issuance above $20 billion in 2025. See Catastrophe bonds and ILS: how they work and who they affect for how that money enters the market.
• Modest demand growth. Buyers wanted 5% to 10% more limit, according to Guy Carpenter, which was easily met.
• A quieter hurricane year. Gallagher Re's report noted large insured catastrophe losses about 10% below the 10-year average as of early December 2025, although ground-up insured cat losses still exceeded $120 billion for a sixth straight year.
• High attachment points. Reinsurers raised the level at which they start paying in 2023, and that structure remained. Guy Carpenter pointed to attachment points that kept reinsurers' share of cat losses low, so the lower price came on a less exposed layer than before the 2023 hardening.

What did not loosen: terms. Howden noted that attachments stay elevated and terms tighter than historical norms, and retrocessionaires were unwilling to broaden cover to non-natural perils such as strikes, riots and terrorism. Insurers could buy more cheaply, but still hold more of the first dollars of loss than before 2023.

Casualty and cyber did not follow property

The softening was concentrated in catastrophe property. Gallagher Re described U.S. casualty capacity and pricing as stable, with quota share ceding commissions moving up or down in the low single digits and excess of loss generally flat on a risk-adjusted basis. Guy Carpenter said casualty renewals were generally stable, with a range from positive for U.S. liability to negative for E&O and non-U.S. liability. Reinsurers remain cautious about U.S. social inflation, which is why umbrella vs excess liability pricing has not eased the way property has. Cyber reinsurance, in contrast, softened: Gallagher Re's cyber aggregate excess of loss index fell 32%, reported by Artemis.

How to read a renewal report

1. Find the date and population. "Non-loss-impacted" programs get the headline cuts. Cedants with big recent losses get less.
2. Separate price from structure. A price cut with a higher attachment point or a new exclusion is a smaller cut than it looks.
3. Compare the indices. Three brokers can differ by a few points. A consistent direction across all three is the signal.
4. Watch the next dates. April 1, June 1 and July 1 show whether January's pattern holds for Florida and the Gulf Coast.
5. Note what is excluded. Retrocession, aggregate covers, and casualty each have their own pricing trend.

What this means for a business buyer

Reinsurance is one input into your premium, and it works with a lag. A cedant buys January 1 cover, then files or adjusts rates over the following months, and your policy renews on its own date. Here is a hypothetical: say an Illinois manufacturer with a May 1 property renewal was quoted a 10% increase in 2024. In 2026 its carrier, whose reinsurance costs fell, may quote flat or a modest decrease. But the carrier's own claims experience, especially severe convective storm losses (hail and tornado) in the Midwest, still matters. Falling reinsurance rates helped property buyers more in catastrophe-exposed regions than in loss-driven classes.

Practical steps for a buyer:

• Ask your broker whether your carrier's reinsurance renewal has improved its appetite for your class and location.
• Use the softer market to negotiate lower deductibles or higher sublimits for flood, quake or wind rather than only a lower rate. See named storm deductibles: how percentage wind deductibles work.
• Do not assume the cycle continues. Brokers expect further declines in 2026, but one large loss can reverse the trend. hard and soft insurance markets: what the cycle means for buyers explains the cycle, and commercial insurance pricing trends: what the 2026 indexes show shows what has happened to primary rates.

The mechanics of how a reinsurance cost moves into your rate are in how reinsurance pricing flows into business insurance premiums, and the basics of the product are in what is reinsurance, and why it affects your business premium.

Key takeaways

• January 1 is the biggest renewal date in reinsurance, and brokers' reports on it set the narrative for the year.
• For 1/1/2026, Guy Carpenter reported global property cat pricing down 12%, Gallagher Re 10% to 20% for non-loss programs, and Howden Re 14.7%.
• Excess capital and modest demand drove the declines, while attachment points and terms stayed tighter than before 2023.
• Casualty reinsurance stayed stable while property and cyber softened, so primary pricing varies by line.
• Reinsurance is one input to your premium; claims experience and the rate your carrier needs for your class matter as well.