Guides
Commercial insurance pricing trends: what the 2026 indexes show
Where commercial insurance prices stand in 2026 by line and account size, using Marsh, CIAB, WTW and Ivans data, why the indexes disagree, and how to budget.
Commercial insurance prices in the United States are roughly flat in 2026, but the average hides a split. Property rates are falling, sharply for large accounts. Umbrella, excess liability and commercial auto are still rising. Workers' compensation and cyber are drifting down. Which direction your own renewal goes depends on the mix of lines you buy, the size of your account and your loss record.
The 2026 indexes side by side
Four widely quoted sources, all for the second quarter of 2026 unless noted:
| Source | Headline | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Marsh Global Insurance Market Index (July 23, 2026) | U.S. composite -2%; global composite -6%, the eighth straight quarterly decline | Rate change on the renewals Marsh placed for its clients |
| Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) Q2 2026 survey, per Insurance Journal (Aug. 20, 2026) | Average premium change -2.0% for all accounts: large -3.7%, medium -1.9%, small -0.5% | Brokers' reports of premium change, by account size |
| WTW Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey, per Insurance Journal (Sept. 14, 2026) | U.S. rates +0.5%, down from +2.5% in Q1 2026 and +3.8% a year earlier | Same-coverage comparisons of policies written in Q2 2026 against Q2 2025 |
| Ivans Index, same article (August 2026) | Renewal changes: commercial property 5.69%, BOP 5.44%, general liability 4.18%, commercial auto 3.58%, umbrella 6.82%, workers' comp -1.1% | Renewal premium changes flowing between independent agencies and carriers |
WTW also found that large accounts saw an overall price decrease, the first since the end of 2017.
Why the numbers disagree
Marsh shows U.S. property down 13%; Ivans shows commercial property renewals up 5.69%. Both can be right, because they measure different things:
- Account size. Large and complex property programs are bought in a competitive, capacity-rich market and have fallen furthest. Small accounts buy through standard carriers that price by class, territory and building value, and agency-system data such as Ivans' tends to skew toward them.
- Rate versus premium. A rate is the price per unit of exposure. Premium is rate times the exposure, and exposure grows when building values, payroll or sales rise. A small business that insures to current replacement cost can see its premium climb while the rate per $100 of value falls. The Turner Building Cost Index rose 4.1% on average in 2025, per Turner Construction.
- Who is counted. Broker surveys, carrier data and agency-system data cover different customers.
Ask your broker which measure applies to an account like yours, then compare your quote to that, not to the national headline.
Line by line
Property: falling. Marsh reported U.S. property down 13% in Q2 2026. CIAB put commercial property at -6.3% across account sizes. The reinsurance behind it is cheaper: Guy Carpenter's U.S. property catastrophe rate-on-line index fell 16% over the 2026 renewals through July and is about 22% below its 2024 peak, per Artemis. See how reinsurance pricing flows into business insurance premiums.
Casualty: rising. Marsh's U.S. casualty index was up 7% in Q2 2026, after +9% in Q1 2026. Its Q4 2025 report had casualty up 9%, or 12% excluding workers' compensation. CIAB's umbrella figure of +5.3% was the 35th consecutive quarterly increase, the largest of any line it tracked. Social inflation, meaning rising jury awards and settlement costs, keeps pressing the liability lines; see nuclear verdicts and social inflation: why liability costs keep rising and commercial umbrella insurance. WTW says excess and umbrella still have the biggest increases, though these have slowed to a high single-digit rate.
Commercial auto: firm. CIAB reported +4.5%, and AM Best's 2025 commercial auto combined ratio was 103.5, so carriers have little reason to ease off. See why commercial auto insurance keeps getting more expensive.
Workers' compensation: down, with exceptions. CIAB had workers' comp at -3.2%, Ivans at -1.1%. NCCI reported a 91 combined ratio for private carriers in 2025 (86 in 2024), a profitable line that carriers compete for. State rate filings still vary: California's insurance commissioner adopted a 6.6% increase in the advisory pure premium rate, to $1.65 per $100 of payroll effective September 1, 2026 (California Department of Insurance); see California and workers' comp trends: frequency, severity and rates in 2026.
Cyber: soft. Marsh had U.S. cyber at -2% and CIAB at -3.2%. See the cyber insurance market: capacity, pricing and appetite.
Financial and professional lines: bottoming. Marsh reported U.S. financial and professional lines at +1% in Q2 2026, after -2% in Q1. Aon, via Risk & Insurance (Aug. 10, 2026), counted the first rise in public-company primary D&O pricing, +0.6%, after 16 quarters of declines.
What is driving it
Marsh credits abundant capacity, strong competition among insurers, lower reinsurance costs, higher investment returns and strong profitability. AM Best put the industry's 2025 combined ratio at 95 and commercial lines at 95.8, while liability ran above 100 (Claims Journal, Feb. 25, 2026). Profit explains why property and workers' comp are soft; losses explain why auto and excess liability are not. For the mechanics, see hard and soft insurance markets: what the cycle means for buyers and the combined ratio: how insurers make (and lose) money on underwriting.
Marsh also warns that conditions are likely to persist "absent a severe northern hemisphere storm season or string of major natural catastrophes." Prices in this market can turn within a renewal cycle.
A hypothetical budget (illustrative percentages)
Say a regional distributor pays $670,000 across six lines. Applying changes chosen from within the 2026 ranges above:
| Line | Expiring premium | Assumed change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Property | $200,000 | -6% | -$12,000 |
| General liability | $80,000 | +4% | +$3,200 |
| Commercial auto | $150,000 | +4.5% | +$6,750 |
| Umbrella | $100,000 | +5% | +$5,000 |
| Workers' compensation | $120,000 | -3% | -$3,600 |
| Cyber | $20,000 | -3% | -$600 |
| Total | $670,000 | -$1,250 (-0.2%) |
The total is nearly flat while four lines moved by thousands of dollars. Budget by line, not by the headline. The figures are invented to show the arithmetic, not a typical account.
How to use the trend
- Ask which lines are soft and which are firm. Put the effort where the leverage is.
- Spend property savings on coverage. Buy back sublimits, lower deductibles or add business income limits, rather than banking the cut.
- Prepare for casualty increases. Loss runs, a safety program and driver standards matter most in auto and umbrella. See how to negotiate a business insurance renewal.
- Test retentions. Use the deductible and retention break-even calculator and the Total cost of risk (TCOR) calculator rather than chasing the lowest quote.
- Start early. Some umbrella and excess carriers are capping the limit they will write on one policy, so high limits may need layered placements.
Key takeaways
- U.S. commercial pricing is near flat in 2026 (Marsh composite -2%, WTW +0.5%, CIAB -2.0%) because falling property rates offset rising casualty.
- Large accounts are seeing decreases; small accounts are close to flat or up, partly because insured values and payroll rise.
- Umbrella (35 straight quarterly increases per CIAB) and commercial auto are the firm lines; property, workers' comp and cyber are soft.
- Indexes measure different things; compare your renewal with the one that matches your size and line.
- Budget line by line, and treat soft pricing as temporary until a catastrophe season or a casualty shock proves otherwise.